Classification of yearly extreme precipitation events and associated flood risk in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley     

Zhiqing Xie  Yin Du  Yan Zeng  Qian Miao 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2018,61(9):1341-1356

Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events(RYEPEs)were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1979–2016 applying the statistical percentile method.There were five types of RYEPEs,namely Yangtze Meiyu(YM-RYEPE),Huaihe Meiyu(HM-RYEPE),southwest-northeast-oriented Meiyu(SWNE-RYEPE)and typhoon I and II(TC-RYEPE)types of RYEPEs.Potential vorticity diagnosis showed that propagation trajectories of the RYEPEs along the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its steering flow were concentrated over the southern YHRV.As a result,the strongest and most frequently RYEPEs events,about 16–21 cases with average rainfall above 100 mm,occurred in the southern YHRV,particularly in the Nanjing metropolitan area.There have been 14 cases of flood-inducing RYEPEs since 1979,with the submerged area exceeding 120 km~2as simulated by the Flood Area hydraulic model,comprising six HM-RYEPEs,five YM-RYEPEs,two TC-RYEPEs,and one SWNE-RYEPE.The combination of evolving RYEPEs and rapid expansion of urban agglomeration is most likely to change the flood risk distribution over the Nanjing metropolitan area in the future.In the RCP6.0(RCP8.5)scenario,the built-up area increases at a rate of about 10.41 km~2(10 yr)~(-1)(24.67 km~2(10 yr)~(-1))from 2010 to 2100,and the area of high flood risk correspondingly increases from 3.86 km~2(3.86 km~2)to 9.00 km~2(13.51 km~2).Areas of high flood risk are mainly located at Chishan Lake in Jurong,Lukou International Airport in Nanjing,Dongshan in Jiangning District,Lishui District and other low-lying areas.The accurate simulation of flood scenarios can help reduce losses due to torrential flooding and improve early warnings,evacuation planning and risk analysis.More attention should be paid to the projected high flood risk because of the concentrated population,industrial zones and social wealth throughout the Nanjing metropolitan area.  相似文献   

Estimating the properties of weathered bedrock and pilerock interaction from the geological strength index     

Chun-mei Zhou  Wei Shao  Kun-long Yin  Zong-ji Yang 《山地科学学报》2018,15(8):1757-1776

The effect of variable rock mass properties on pile-rock interaction poses a great challenge to the design of stabilizing piles and numerical analysis of pile-rock interaction. The paper presents a novel method to estimate the properties of weathered bedrock, which can be applied to routine design of landslide-stabilizing piles for collivial landslides. The Ercengyan landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China, is the area of interest for this study. A geological investigation and triaxial tests were conducted to estimate the basic parameters, including Geological Strength Index(GSI), uniaxial compressive strength σ_(ci) and Hoek-Brown constant m_i of intact bedrock in the study area. Hoek-Brown criterion was used to estimate mechanical properties of the weathered rock, including elastic modulus E_m, cohesion c, friction angle Φ, and normal ultimate lateral resistance p_(max). A parametric study was performed to evaluate the effect of parameterizations of GSI, σ_(ci) and m_i on the bedrock properties and p-y curves. The estimated rock mass properties were used with PLAXIS 2D software to simulate pile-rock interaction. Effect of GSI on stress at the pile-rock interface and in the rock, pile bending moment, pile shear force, and p-y curve were analysed.  相似文献   

基于S波段双极化雷达的变分法的定量降水估计算法          下载免费PDF全文

刘陈帅  张阿思  陈生 《热带气象学报》2022,38(3):422-432

基于比差分传播相移(K_DP)的降水估计算法R(K_DP)相较于传统基于水平反射率因子(Z_H)的算法R(Z_H)的表现更优。在雷达实际运行中,由于随机误差和后向散射相位(backscattering phase)的影响,可能出现负的K_DP。运用一种基于变分的雷达定量降水估计混合算法(V-RQPE)。该算法用变分拟合方法重构差分相位(Φ_DP),用一种新的稳健的边界条件求解方法,在消除随机误差的同时获得非负的K_DP,进而进行降水估计。随后我们使用2017年5月7日广州S波段雷达的回波数据和地面雨量站观测数据进行验证,同时使用了六种不同的算法进行对比,结果显示,在1小时累计降水估计中,V-RQPE表现最好,在24小时累计降水估计中,V-RQPE和基于变分拟合的K_DP的降水估计算法(R-VKDP)表现最好,实验结果表明变分拟合方法对雷达降水估计能力有显著提升。   相似文献   

Effects of convective available potential energy,temperature and humidity on the variability of thunderstorm frequency over Bangladesh     

Wahiduzzaman  Md  Ali  Md. Arfan  Luo  Jing-Jia  Wang  Yu  Uddin  Md. Jalal  Shahid  Shamsuddin  Islam  A. R. M. Towfiqul  Mondal  Sanjit Kumar  Siddiki  Ubaydur Rahaman  Bilal  Muhammad  Qiu  Zhongfeng  Dambul  Ramzah  Eibek  Kutubuddin  Haque  Md. Emdadul 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):325-346

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The present study examines the effects of convective available potential energy (CAPE), temperature and humidity on the spatiotemporal variation of...  相似文献   

Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the long-term record of floods over Bangladesh     

Wahiduzzaman  Md  Cheung  Kevin  Tang  Shaolei  Luo  Jing-Jia 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):173-184

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The present study analyzed a long-term record of major floods over Bangladesh under the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Bangladesh...  相似文献   

Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill          下载免费PDF全文

L.A.D.Buddika Bandurathna  Lu Wang  Xuan Zhou  Yifeng Cheng  Lin Chen 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(6):7-13

斯里兰卡的雨季发生于5-9月间,主要受西南季风的控制.本文发现该地区的西南季风降水存在很强的次季节变率,主导周期为10-35天.降水的季节内变化与西传的异常气旋有关.进一步,利用S2S比较计划中欧洲中心的数值预报模式(ECMWF)提供的回报试验数据,评估了当今动力模式对斯里兰卡西南季风次季节变化的预报技巧.结果显示,对季风指数的预测技巧超过30天,而对降水指数的预测技巧大约两周,且模式的预报技巧具有明显的年际差异.分析表明,能否正确模拟出大尺度环流对热带对流的响应是影响斯里兰卡降水预测的重要因子.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill          下载免费PDF全文

Xuan Zhou  Lin Chen  Janet Umuhoza  Yifeng Cheng  Lu Wang  Ran Wang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(6):60-65

非洲中东部地区的经济主要依靠自给农业支撑,该地区农业经济对降水的变化尤为敏感.本文以卢旺达为例,观测分析指出卢旺达的次季节降雨主要集中在10-25天;根据次季节尺度降水变率的单点相关方法,发现卢旺达的次季节降水变率和周围区域变化一致;进一步合成结果显示该地区次季节降水变率与异常西风有关,这可追溯到赤道地区西传的赤道Rossby波.最后,本文评估了当前动力模式ECMWF对 卢旺达地区(即非洲中东部)次季节降水变率的预报能力,发现EC模式在对该区域降水和相关风场指数的预报技巧都在18天左右,且预报技巧表现出一定的年际差异,这可能与热带太平洋的背景海温信号有关.该工作增进了当 前对非洲中东部地区的次季节降水变率和预测水平的认知,并且对该地区国家粮食安全和防灾减灾具有启示性意义.  相似文献   

Trigger mechanism of a snow burst event in Northeast China: 东北一次雪飑事件的触发机制研究          下载免费PDF全文

《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(2):100017

A snow burst event characterized by brief heavy snowfall affected Northeast China and caused serious social impact on 26 January 2017, with the snowband generally aligned with a northeast–southwest-oriented cold front. ECMWF reanalysis data were used to diagnose the possible trigger mechanism. Results showed there were two stages: (a) an initial stage far away from the Changbai Mountains, and (b) an enhancement stage under the influence of high terrain. During the initial stage, the coupling of low-level frontogenesis and a favorable convergence pattern caused strong upward motion, contributing to the release of instability. When the snowband approached the high terrain during the enhancement stage, the various instabilities were triggered by the low-level frontogenesis, terrain circulation, and strong wind shear associated with the low-level jet. Further, a modified Q-vector divergence including generalized potential temperature was calculated to diagnose the vertical motion. It showed that the frontogenesis terms contributed greatly to the negative Q-vector divergence along the moist isentropes, while the pseudo-vorticity terms played a role in the regions with strong wind shear associated with the low-level jet in the warm section, suggesting both were important in stimulating the ascending motion. The regions with negative Q-vector divergence had a close relationship with the vertical structure of convection, indicating the potential to track the development of the snowband in the next few hours.摘要2017年1月26日, 中国东北地区发生了一次短时强降雪过程.本文利用ECMWF再分析数据诊断该过程的可能触发机制.分析表明, 该过程可分两个阶段:初生阶段降雪远离高地形, 低层锋生和有利的辐散场配置激发上升运动释放不稳定;增强阶段雪带接近长白山, 低层锋生,地形环流以及与低空急流有关的风切变共同释放锋前不稳定.本文进一步计算了包含广义位温的修正Q矢量方程.结果表明, 锋生项对沿湿等熵线的负Q矢量散度贡献较大, 而拟涡度项在暖区强风切变区域中比较显著, 两项在激发上升运动中同等重要.  相似文献   

不同类型冷却屋顶方案对城市群热环境的缓解效果     

张弥  马红云  林卉娇  李海俊  王莹 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(1):45-57

利用耦合单层城市冠层模型的中尺度数值模式WRF/UCM,选取8组不同反照率和绿化比例的屋顶冷却方案进行敏感性试验,模拟研究不同冷却屋顶方案对长三角城市群2013年夏季城市热环境的影响,并分析其影响机制。结果表明：不同冷却屋顶方案对城市群热环境的缓解效果与屋顶参数之间呈很强的线性关系。高温热浪天气下,HR4（反照率为1.0）和GR4（屋顶绿化率为100%）方案的制冷度日数分别降低了14.7%和10.9%,节约的能源比普通夏日更多。同时,高温热浪天气会增强热岛强度,高反照率屋顶方案在白天对热岛起到更有效的缓解,热浪天气下日平均热岛强度最大可降低1.36℃。相同方案下,在高温热浪天气下的缓解效果均胜于普通夏日,平均而言,高反照率屋顶和屋顶绿化的降温效果分别增大38.5%和34.9%,增湿效果分别增大29.5%和21.9%,这主要是由于在高温热浪天气下,高反照率屋顶方案能够减少更多的净辐射通量,屋顶绿化方案能够释放更多的潜热通量。此外,城市格点密集区域的降温效果优于分散的城市区域,处于城市群中的常州区域较单独的杭州区域的降温幅度平均高32%。  相似文献   

Comparison of single- and dual-permeability models in simulating the unsaturated hydro-mechanical behavior in a rainfall-triggered landslide     

Wei Shao  Zongji Yang  Junjun Ni  Ye Su  Wen Nie  Xieyao Ma 《Landslides》2018,15(12):2449-2464

Landslide-prone slopes in earthquake-affected areas commonly feature heterogeneity and high permeability due to the presence of cracks and fissures that were caused by ground shaking. Landslide reactivation in heterogeneous slope may be affected by preferential flow that was commonly occurred under heavy rainfall. Current hydro-mechanical models that are based on a single-permeability model consider soil as a homogeneous continuum, which, however, cannot explicitly represent the hydraulic properties of heterogeneous soil. The present study adopted a dual-permeability model, using two Darcy-Richards equations to simulate the infiltration processes in both matrix and preferential flow domains. The hydrological results were integrated with an infinite slope stability approach, attempting to investigate the hydro-mechanical behavior. A coarse-textured unstable slope in an earthquake-affected area was chosen for conducting artificial rainfall experiment, and in the experiment slope, failure was triggered several times under heavy rainfall. The simulated hydro-mechanical results of both single- and dual-permeability model were compared with the measurements, including soil moisture content, pore water pressure, and slope stability conditions. Under high-intensity rainfall, the measured soil moisture and pore water pressure at 1-m depth showed faster hydrological response than its simulations, which can be regarded as a typical evidence of preferential flow. We found the dual-permeability model substantially improved the quantification of hydro-mechanical processes. Such improvement could assist in obtaining more reliable landslide-triggering predication. In the light of the implementation of a dual-permeability model for slope stability analysis, a more flexible and robust early warning system for shallow landslides hazard in coarse-textured slopes could be provided.  相似文献